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QB Dominance: Anticipating the top 3 Fantasy Finishers - Kenneth SteinkampThere is a solid consensus on the top two QBs going into the 2020 season with little debate that either will not be a top 3 option for fantasy football regardless of scoring format. The debate for number 3 is the question that many experts and fans will debate going into the draft season. The current consensus may change come August but who could land into the top three by the end of the year. Arguments can be made but only time will tell.
The Consensus 3
- Lamar Jackson: The 2019 league MVP took over the league a year ago and dominated his competition. At times it appeared that someone made a Madden player changed all of his attributes to 99 and set the mode on Rookie. 43 combined TDs and only eight turnovers were great. Over 1200 yards rushing was unbelievable. In almost all formats he scored over 100pts more than the next QB for fantasy and was making it look pretty easy.
Reasons he could fall out of the top 3:
The biggest concern for Jackson has to be the potential of injury with the way he carries the ball. Is it possible that on one of his 150+ carries that he gets hit awkwardly, plants his foot wrong or pulls a muscle? It’s possible but it’s not something most people will be concerned about as any QB can be injured whether they are a running QB or pocket passer. Another area that is more likely to bring Jackson a few notches down is just how efficient he was at throwing TDs and his yards/carry. He led the league in TDs per attempt and history would say that he will regress to the median. With that being said; he would need a massive reduction in efficiency to fall out of the top few finishers in 2020 based on being nearly 20% better than any other QB a year ago.
- Patrick Mahomes: Another former MVP and last year’s SB MVP is somehow stuck at #2 in the consensus rankings. This is likely more about how great Lamar Jackson was a year ago and less about the talent of Mahomes. On a per-game basis Mahomes was again near the top even while having a few games affected by a fluke knee injury. He cleaned up his turnovers and again made plays with his arm that baffle analysts around the world. If Mahomes can stay healthy and avoid another fluke injury, he could be primed for a rejuvenation of sorts into another possible historic season with a healthy Damien Williams and the lone first-round RB pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire which many people believe will fit the KC to perfection. A 5000 yard and 50 TD season is never out of the realm of possibility for the superstar in KC.
Reasons he could fall out of the top 3:
Injury is less of a concern for Mahomes but maybe the only imaginable reason he could falter in many individuals’ eyes. The real threat may actually be that the rest of the league learned from what the Titan’s almost accomplished. Keep running the ball and leaving no time for Mahomes to touch the ball. The Chiefs can score almost at will but limiting Mahomes touches could impact how many TDs he will be able to cash in on. What is obvious at this point is that there is no defense that appears able to cover the talent of the Chefs WRs and is able to put consistent pressure on Mahomes. He is likely the safest long-term option at QB the league has seen since Peyton Manning entered the league.
- Dak Prescott: The man without a long-term deal and had in his own right a career season a year ago is the consensus number 3 option for analysts this year. The offseason for Dallas included adding CeeDee Lamb to a WR corps that may become the best in the league. Cooper was brought back on a long-term deal and it appears the Cowboys may need to score a lot of points with how other NFC east times shored up their offensive side of the ball. Prescott may find it difficult to get near 5000 yards again but improving on his 30 TDs is a reasonable feat with Cooper back, Gallup having another year to improve and the presumptive best WR in the class being added to the offense. He also needs to play well to force Jerry Jones to open his wallet which should add a lot of motivation. While Prescott may find it hard to finish as a top 3 fantasy QB it’s hard to imagine that he will fall too far down the board with the offensive weapons around him.
Reasons he could fall out of the top 3:
If taking odds it’s likely that Prescott will not finish as a top 3 QB this year but the real reason this could happen is more about other QBs having career years instead of Prescott failing. Issues that could arise is the offensive line now has a big hole in the middle after the retirement of Travis Fredrick that could lead to less stable protection. There is also a possibility that Elliot has a resurgence on the ground while becoming the premier RB in the league again and the Cowboys just don’t have a reason to throw the ball to win games.
The 3 Potential QBs That Could Jump Into the Top 3:
- The Young Gun: Kyler Murray (consensus #4)
Murray is polarizing as some question his talent, his size, and decision-making attributes while others see the next star in the making. What’s not up for debate is that the offense received a major boost on the outside with Deandre Hopkins moving to Phoenix to boost a receiving core that had HOF talent Larry Fitzgerald and emerging talent Christian Kirk. Murray got a lot of his points in useless time during games but this is Fantasy and every yard counts. If Murray can start cashing in and getting more drives into the endzone there is a possibility he takes the next step into the elite fantasy performers.
- The Rising Star that Fell to his Knee: Carson Wentz (Consensus #12)
Just a few short years ago the NFL world thought it was experiencing the next superstar in the making as Carson Wentz looked poised to win an MVP and was leading a team to the best record in the NFL. Then the knee injury derailed his outlook over the next few years and the Eagles failed to provide healthy weapons for Wentz to throw to. Wentz still has the talent, but will Jeffery be healthy? Will Jalen Reagor live up to his draft status? Can Ertz sustain elite TE play? Will Goedert continue to impress? And can Sanders provide an elite pass-catching option out of the backfield? If most of the answers to these are yes than Wentz has shown MVP caliber play and could return to the potential elite QB options fans saw a few years ago.
- The Greatest Of All Time: Tom Brady (Consensus #10)
The man that stole the MVP from the injured Carson Wentz has a resume that may never be duplicated: 3 MVPs, 4 Super Bowl MVPs, 6 Super Bowl wins and a laundry list of other records indicate just how great TB12 has been throughout his career. Yet last year Brady looked very pedestrian. He was able to nudge past 4000 yards but couldn’t hit 25 TDs and made headlines about his frustration with the offense. Why is it possible he becomes a fantasy king again? At 43 years of age, he will be suiting up for an offense that on paper has more weapons than Brady has ever seen outside of the Pro Bowl. He will have the emerging star Godwin working inside, a man that just has 1000 yard seasons on the outside in Mike Evans, a TE that has every measurable physical attribute a player could want in O.J. Howard and his old pal from NE; the touchdown scoring phenom Rob Gronkowski. There are also smaller pieces that are intriguing such as Cameron Brate that has been a good weapon, a few young RBs that have potential but are not proven, and an underrated 3rd WR in Scott Miller that has speed for days. Most of these weapons were here a year ago and performed to many individuals liking; all while having a QB that turned the ball over at a record pace. Brady is much safer with the football and that should mean more possessions leading to scores instead of heading the other way. If the offensive weapons all reach their fantasy outlook for 2020; it’ll mean that Brady didn’t lose his ability and is near the top of the fantasy QB finishers.
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